Kidney failure risk equation calculator
Calculates the risk of progression to end-stage kidney disease in patients with chronic kidney disease.
(Estimates the 2-year and 5-year risk of requiring dialysis.)
*If all optional fields are entered, the 8-variable equation is applied.
If any are missing, the 4-variable equation is used.
5-year kidney failure risk – 3–5%: Refer to nephrologist
2-year kidney failure risk – ≥10%: Multidisciplinary care
2-year kidney failure risk – ≥40%: Prepare for renal replacement therapy (transplant or AV fistula)
Reference :
Tangri N, Stevens LA, Griffith J, et al. A predictive model for progression of chronic kidney disease to kidney failure. JAMA. 2011
Tangri N, Grams ME, Levey AS et al. Multinational Assessment of Accuracy of Equations for Predicting Risk of Kidney Failure: A Meta-analysis. JAMA. 2016
What is the Kidney Failure Risk Equation?
The kidney failure risk equation was first developed by a Canadian research team based on studies of patients with CKD stages 3–5, and has been validated in over 700,000 patients across more than 30 countries worldwide. It uses 4 or 8 variables to estimate the 2-year and 5-year risk of dialysis or kidney transplantation. Adjustment coefficients have been added for non–North American cohorts.
The KDIGO 2024 CKD guideline recommends using externally validated risk equations to assess the absolute risk of kidney failure.
- 5-year kidney failure risk of 3–5%: referral to nephrology is recommended.
- 2-year kidney failure risk over 40%: preparation for renal replacement therapy such as vascular access for dialysis or kidney transplantation should be considered.
Formula used in the above calculator (Kidney failure risk equation) :
4-variable equation, Patient 2-year risk, non-North America
1 – 0.9832 ^ exp (-0.2201 × (age/10 – 7.036) + 0.2467 × (male – 0.5642) – 0.5567 × (eGFR/5 – 7.222) + 0.4510 × (logACR – 5.137))
4-variable equation, Patient 5-year risk, non-North America
1 – 0.9365 ^ exp (-0.2201 × (age/10 – 7.036) + 0.2467 × (male – 0.5642) – 0.5567 × (eGFR/5 – 7.222) + 0.4510 × (logACR – 5.137))
4-variable equation, Patient 2-year risk, North America
1 – 0.9750 ^ exp (-0.2201 × (age/10 – 7.036) + 0.2467 × (male – 0.5642) – 0.5567 × (eGFR/5 – 7.222) + 0.4510 × (logACR – 5.137))
4-variable equation, Patient 5-year risk, North America
1 – 0.9240 ^ exp (-0.2201 × (age/10 – 7.036) + 0.2467 × (male – 0.5642) – 0.5567 × (eGFR/5 – 7.222) + 0.4510 × (logACR – 5.137))
8-variable equation, Patient 2-year risk, non-North America
1 – 0.9827 ^ exp (-0.1992 × (age/10 – 7.036) + 0.1602 × (male – 0.5642) – 0.4919 × (eGFR/5 – 7.222) + 0.3364 × (logACR – 5.137) – 0.3441 × (albumin – 3.997) + 0.2604 × (phosphorous – 3.916) – 0.07354 × (bicarbonate – 25.57) – 0.2228 × (calcium – 9.355))
8-variable equation, Patient 5-year risk, non-North America
1 – 0.9245 ^ exp (-0.1992 × (age/10 – 7.036) + 0.1602 × (male – 0.5642) – 0.4919 × (eGFR/5 – 7.222) + 0.3364 × (logACR – 5.137) – 0.3441 × (albumin – 3.997) + 0.2604 × (phosphorous – 3.916) – 0.07354 × (bicarbonate – 25.57) – 0.2228 × (calcium – 9.355))
8-variable equation, Patient 2-year risk, North America
1 – 0.9780 ^ exp (-0.1992 × (age/10 – 7.036) + 0.1602 × (male – 0.5642) – 0.4919 × (eGFR/5 – 7.222) + 0.3364 × (logACR – 5.137) – 0.3441 × (albumin – 3.997) + 0.2604 × (phosphorous – 3.916) – 0.07354 × (bicarbonate – 25.57) – 0.2228 × (calcium – 9.355))
8-variable equation, Patient 5-year risk, North America
1 – 0.9301 ^ exp (-0.1992 × (age/10 – 7.036) + 0.1602 × (male – 0.5642) – 0.4919 × (eGFR/5 – 7.222) + 0.3364 × (logACR – 5.137) – 0.3441 × (albumin – 3.997) + 0.2604 × (phosphorous – 3.916) – 0.07354 × (bicarbonate – 25.57) – 0.2228 × (calcium – 9.355))
Reference :
- Tangri N, Stevens LA, Griffith J, et al. A predictive model for progression of chronic kidney disease to kidney failure. JAMA. 2011
- Tangri N, Grams ME, Levey AS et al. Multinational Assessment of Accuracy of Equations for Predicting Risk of Kidney Failure: A Meta-analysis. JAMA. 2016